Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are fractionally higher ahead of the weekly Export Sales report, after sliding another 3 to 4 cents on Wednesday. Preliminary open interest rose 3,248 contracts. The EIA weekly report showed that ethanol production remained above 1 million bpd, at 1,014 mil bpd for the week ending 11/1. Stocks were reported at 21.874 million barrels, a build of 3.7% for the week. Traders are estimating this afternoon’s USDA corn weekly export sales to range from 300,000 MT to 650,000 MT for the week ending 10/31. The average analyst estimation for the USDA report on Friday calls for global ending stocks of corn to be at 300.31 MMT.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans are mostly 3 to 4 cents higher this morning. Futures closed Wednesday lower by as much as 6 3/4 cents. There was some net new selling, with preliminary open interest rising 13,046 contracts (mostly Jan, March and May). Soybean meal also finished lower on the day, by $3.80/ton. Soybean oil, on the other hand, did gain 18 points on Wednesday. There were zero delivery notices against November futures overnight, as the commercial stopper is in fact sitting on them. Soybean basis was -0.6242 for the last week of October after climbing steadily through the month, but through the first week of November the basis has dropped to average -0.70 so far. Last year the average through the first week of November was -$1.02. Trade estimates for soybean export sales for the week ending on 10/31 range from 600,000 – 1.2 MMT. Soybean meal is expected to see export sales between 150,000 - 300,000 MT for the same week. Traders are anticipating this morning’s weekly report to indicate soybean oil export sales from 5,000-25,000 MT.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents higher in the Chicago and MPLS contracts this morning. KC HRW is trading about 1 cent per bushel lower. Chicago SRW wheat finished Wednesday with gains from 1/2 cent to 1 1/2 cents. HRW wheat finished lower by 3/4 to 3 cents. The biggest mover was HRS futures, which were lower by as much as 3 1/2 by Wednesday’s closing bell. The EU has raised their 2019/20 wheat crop production estimate to 147.0 MMT, up from their previous 145 MMT estimate. The EU also adjusted their wheat export expectations to 26 MMT. Analysts anticipate world ending stocks of 287.03 MMT from the USDA on Friday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were mixed again Wednesday, with a 45 cent loss for nearby Dec contracts. Nearby feeder cattle futures were lower by $1.05 to $1.35. Beef exports to China were at an all time high for the month of September, shipping 3 million lbs for the month, still a drop in the bucket! The 11/04 CME Feeder Cattle index was down $0.21 to $146.24. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher yesterday. Choice boxes posted a gain of 68 cents, and select boxes finished higher by $1.71. Yesterday feedlots passed on offers of $113-$114 and the FCE online auction had no completed trades. NE and KS cattle were listed at $117. There will be an additional auction tomorrow. The USDA estimated cattle slaughter is ahead of last week’s pace, with a running weekly total of 352,000 head through Wednesday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures rallied back in the afternoon, but not enough to erase losses. Futures finished Wednesday down by as much as $2.50 in nearby contracts. Of the 465.0 Million lbs of September pork exports in the Census data, 14.53% went to China. China has received 539.806 million lbs of U.S. pork already this year, which is 37.84% higher than 2018’s entire yearly total, with 3 months to add more. The Nov. 4 CME Lean Hog Index was lower by 52 cents, at $60.36. Wednesday’s pork carcass cutout value from USDA gained back $1.44, since being lower at midday. Ribs lost $2.17 on the day, but the other primal cuts were higher. The national average base hog price was 45.15 at the end of Wednesday’s session, after falling another $0.80. Wednesday’s week to date USDA estimated Hog slaughter was 1.474 million head, outpacing last week by 19,000 head.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton Futures start Thursday 40 to 71 points higher, with nearby December in the lead. December options expire on Friday, driving some position squaring. Cotton futures were mostly lower in the nearby contracts after Wednesday’s session. Jul contracts rose 8 points, but the nearbys were lower by 9 to 27 points. The accumulated online sales, as per the Seam, are up to 6,518 bales as of 11/5. Last week’s total sold was 17,146 bales, at an average pace of 2,449 bales per day. The Cotlook A Index for 11/5 had decreased by 35 points, to 74.70 cents/lb. The AWP will be updated later this afternoon, it has been 57.33 cents/lb since 10/31.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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