Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures followed Turkey Day with gains of 6 to 8 1/2 cents, which was enough to bump them to a gain wk/wk, of 2 1/2 cents. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report indicated 806,751 MT of net sales for the week ending 11/21. That was 2.4% more than last week, but was only 63.7% of week 12 last marketing year. The total commitments through the first 12 weeks are now at 14.069 MMT, which is 44.08% behind last year’s pace. The report also pegged shipments at 635,334 MT for the week, which was a 6% decrease wk/wk and 39.68% below the same week last year. There were zero delivery notices against December corn on first notice day. The oldest long is dated 5/17/19.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.71 1/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.81 1/4, up 8 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.85 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.90 1/4, up 6 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures closed with a 5 to 5 1/4 cent loss on Friday, which pushed the weekly loss to 20 1/4 cents. Soybean meal was $2.90/ton lower, and bean oil went into the post holiday weekend with a 5 point gain on Friday. Soybean export sales from this morning’s report exceeded trader expectations, with 1.664 MT sold the week ending 11/21. Those sales were 14.1% above last week and pushed the MY accumulated commitments (shipped and unshipped sales) to 25.260 MMT, which was a 9.5% ahead of last year’s pace. The weekly soybean shipments, according to the report, were at 2.245 MMT, which is the highest for a week since early November 2017. Meal sales were below expectations this morning, with a mere 93,165 MT sold for the week ending 11/21, which was the lowest weekly sales since the summer slump. Soybean oil had 14,865 MT of sales through the week ending 11/21. China accounted for 831,163 MT of the sales, and 1.531 MMT of the shipments were headed for the PRC. The monthly oilseed crush report will be released on Monday, with the average trade expectation at 186.1 mbu; if realized, that would be an all time monthly record.

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.76 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $8.91 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.05 3/4, down 5 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.18 1/4, down 5 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $290.90, down $2.90,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.42, up $0.05

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures made solid gains today, pushing some futures to weekly gains as well. Chicago wheat futures led the charge on the shortened trading session, with 6 3/4 to 19 cent gains. The late rally pushed the futures to a 32 1/4 cent gain on the week. KC wheat rallied for 7 to 12 cent gains, pushing the wk/wk change to +14 cents. MPLS wheat also made Friday gains, however the 3 1/2 to 6 1/2 cent rally in the nearby contracts was not enough to overcome the previous moves, leaving MPLS futures 3/4 of a cent lower wk/wk. The Chicago/KC wheat premium at $1.08 3/4 is the highest on record, back to ‘04. Chicago futures also hold a premium to MPLS wheat futures, of 53 cents, with the highest spread favoring Chicago since September 2007. USDA Weekly Export Sales were above trade estimates at 612,655 MT, the third largest sale this MY. The total MY export commitments are up to 16.4277 MMT, which is 8.97% above last year’s pace. With 27 weeks left in the MY, accumulated export shipments for all wheat is up to 12.150 MMT which is 26.60% more than the same time last MY.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.47 1/2, up 19 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.38 3/4, up 12 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.94 1/2, up 6 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures fell on Friday by 22 to 50 cents, but still managed to gain 2.13% on the shortened week. Feeder cattle futures followed Thanksgiving’s break with losses in the nearby contracts, futures finished $0.65 to $1.50 on the day, but had a $3.00 gain over the week. The 11/28 CME Feeder Cattle index was $145.11 following a 40 cent increase. Weekly export sales data from the USDA this morning showed beef sales were 26,673 MT for the week ending 11/21. That’s a 25.87% increase wk/wk. Accumulated exports from the same report revealed that 737,315 MT of beef have been shipped this year, which is 4.03% behind last year’s pace. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower. Choice boxes were down 12 cents, and select boxes dropped by 30 cents. The USDA has reported minimal cash sales activity, with KS reporting some $118 activity and some Nebraska $120 sales. USDA estimated the FI cattle slaughter weekly total to be 556,000 head through Saturday. The yearly total is 30.344 million head, which is 324,000 head above last year.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $121.200, down $0.225,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $126.200, down $0.500,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $126.425, down $0.450,

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.275, down $1.050

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.025, down $0.900

APR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.975, down $0.650

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures saw a triple digit rally on Black Friday, futures finished as much as $1.35 higher, pushing the weekly change to +80 cents. The USDA weekly export sales data for the week ending 11/21 showed 50,465 MT sold. That pushes the total commits to 1.674 MMT, which is 43.7% ahead of last year’s pace. With 6 weeks still left in the year to add to the accumulated net sales, pork commitments are already the highest they’ve ever been for a single year. The accumulated shipments according to the report are now at 1.415 MMT which is also a record. China was the destination for 3,366 MT of the sales. Of the shipments, 15,078 MT were headed to China, with an accumulated 290,919 MT on the year. The 11/26 CME Lean Hog Index was $58.60 after a 72 cent bump. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was higher on Friday morning, with a $1.97 gain up to $81.17. Primal cuts were mixed, with the biggest moves coming off of picnic (+6.78) and ribs (-8.03). USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/29 was $42.54, for a 35 cent drop. USDA estimates FI hog slaughter for the shortened week to be 2.343 million head through Saturday, which brings the YTD estimation to 117.880 million head.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $62.025, up $1.350,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $68.175, up $1.025

APR 20 Hogs closed at $73.925, up $0.300

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were lower on Friday, with drops ranging from 39 to 153 points at the closing bell. The Dec cotton futures finished the week with a 4 point loss. The 11/28 Cotlook A Index remained unchanged at 75.10 cents/lb. USDA weekly export sales data revealed that there was a 23.69% increase in sales wk/wk for the week ending 11/21. The 281,514 running bales sold was the second largest for the marketing year after 11/07’s weekly sales of 345,079 bales. China accounted for 39,564 RB of the weekly sales, and 18,349 RB of the week’s shipments. The country has now been the destination for 252,583 RB on the MY. Wednesday was another big day on The Seam; with 5,723 bales sold the short week had already outsold the last 4 week’s totals, the running total as of Wednesday was 33,220 bales. The new AWP is 56.20 cents /lb, which was a 16 point reduction from last Thursday. Friday’s Cotton-on-Call Report from CFTC showed that March 2020 had 32,579 contracts that were unfixed call sales as compared to 25,620 on call purchases; they were revised up 1600 and 9600 contracts respectively.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 63.38, down 153 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 65.42, down 39 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 66.47, down 44 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 67.04, down 59 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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