Ag Market Commentary

Corn is starting off Monday with futures 1/2 cent to either side of UNCH. Futures were up 6 to 8 1/2 cents on Friday, which was enough to bump them to a gain wk/wk, of 2 1/2 cents. Preliminary open interest showed short covering in the December contract on Friday, but net new buying in March. Open interest rose 6,581 contracts overall. There were again zero delivery notices against December corn. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report indicated 806,751 MT of net sales for the week ending 11/21. That was 2.4% more than last week but was only 63.7% of week 12 last marketing year. The total commitments through the first 12 weeks are now at 14.069 MMT, which is 44.08% behind last year’s pace. The report also pegged shipments at 635,334 MT for the week, which was a 6% decrease wk/wk and 39.68% below the same week last year.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

So far soybean futures are 4 to 5 cents higher on Cyber Monday. Buyers are picking up some marked down bargains. Last week, soybean futures closed with a 5 to 5 1/4 cent loss on Friday, which pushed the weekly loss to 20 1/4 cents. Preliminary open interest rose 11,0790 contracts on net new selling interest. Soybean meal was $2.90/ton lower, and bean oil went into the post holiday weekend with a 5 point gain on Friday. The USDA weekly export sales report exceeded trader expectations, with 1.664 MT sold the week ending 11/21. Those sales were 14.1% above last week and pushed the MY accumulated commitments (shipped and unshipped sales) to 25.260 MMT. That was 9.5% ahead of last year’s pace. The weekly soybean shipments, according to the report, were at 2.245 MMT, which is the highest for a week since early November 2017. China accounted for 831,163 MT of the soybean sales, and 1.531 MMT of the shipments were headed for the PRC. The monthly oilseed crush report will be released by USDA this afternoon, with the average trade expectation at 186.1 mbu. If realized, that would be an all time monthly record crush use. Bunge hit the soy oil market with big deliveries (1,270 contracts) over the weekend. JPM clients were the biggest stoppers.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures start the week off steady to 2 cents lower, with nearby Chicago December the outlier with a half cent gain. Wheat futures made big gains on Friday, pushing futures to mostly higher on the week as well. Chicago wheat futures led the charge with 6 3/4 to 19 cent gains. They were up 32 1/4 cents on the week. Preliminary open interest showed net new buying, with OI rising 6,587 contracts. KC wheat rallied 7 to 12 cents, pushing the wk/wk change to +14 cents. Friday MPLS gains of 3 1/2 to 6 1/2 cents were not enough to overcome the previous drop, leaving MPLS futures 3/4 of a cent lower wk/wk. The Chicago/KC wheat premium at $1.09 1/4 is the highest on record. Chicago futures also hold a premium to MPLS wheat futures, of 53 cents, the highest Chicago premium since September 2007. USDA Weekly Export Sales were above trade estimates at 612,655 MT, the third largest sale this MY. With 27 weeks left in the MY, accumulated export shipments for wheat was up to 12.150 MMT which is 26.60% more than the same time last MY. There were again zero deliveries against Chicago December wheat, with the oldest long now 8/30/19. The 11 KC deliveries were all put back out. --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures fell on Friday by 22 to 50 cents, but still managed to gain 2.13% on the week. Feeder cattle futures followed Thanksgiving’s break with losses in the nearby contracts, futures finished $0.65 to $1.50 on the day, but had a $3.00 gain over the week. The 11/28 CME Feeder Cattle index was up 40 cents at $145.11. USDA showed beef export sales were 26,673 MT for the week ending 11/21. That was a 25.87% increase wk/wk. Accumulated exports from the same report revealed that 737,315 MT of beef have been shipped this year, which was 4.03% behind last year’s pace. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower. Choice boxes were down 12 cents, and select boxes dropped by 30 cents. Cash cattle activity was firmer at $117-120 last week. USDA estimated the FI cattle slaughter weekly total to be 556,000 head through Saturday. The yearly total is 30.344 million head, which is 324,000 head above last year. ---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures saw a triple digit rally on Black Friday. Nearby futures finished as much as $1.35 higher, pushing the weekly change to +80 cents. The USDA weekly export sales data for the week ending 11/21 showed 50,465 MT sold. That pushed the total commitments to 1.674 MMT, which was 43.7% ahead of last year’s pace. With 6 weeks still left in the year, pork commitments are already the highest they’ve ever been. The accumulated shipments shown in the weekly report are now at 1.415 MMT which is also a record. China was the destination for 3,366 MT of the sales. Of the weekly shipments, 15,078 MT were headed to China, with an accumulated 290,919 MT on the year. The 11/26 CME Lean Hog Index was $58.60 after a 72 cent bump. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was higher on Friday, with a $1.97 gain up to $81.17. USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/29 was $42.54, for a 35 cent drop. USDA estimates FI hog slaughter for the shortened week to be 2.343 million head through Saturday. ---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton is starting off the week 7 lower to 8 higher. Cotton futures were lower on Friday, with drops ranging from 39 to 153 points at the closing bell. The Dec cotton futures finished the week with a 4 point loss. The 11/28 Cotlook A Index remained unchanged at 75.10 cents/lb. USDA weekly export sales data revealed that there was a 23.69% increase in sales wk/wk for the week ending 11/21. The 281,514 running bales sold was the second largest for the marketing year after 11/07’s weekly sales of 345,079 bales. China accounted for 39,564 RB of the weekly sales, and 18,349 RB of the week’s shipments. The country has now been the destination for 252,583 RB on the MY. The new AWP is 56.20 cents /lb, which was a 16 point reduction from last Thursday. Friday’s Cotton-on-Call Report from CFTC showed that March 2020 had 32,579 contracts that were unfixed call sales as compared to 25,620 on call purchases; they were revised up 1600 and 9600 contracts respectively.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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