Grain Gleanings

 

 

Yield Question

By Jake Moret, Grain Originator

The local question of the summer has been ‘Did we lose more in the bottoms or gain more on the hills from all the rain/flooding in our area?’ Consensus seems to equal out to a 5% loss of total farm yield. The wet areas in the states have dried out over the past week and the areas looking dry on the drought monitor have received timely rains from hurricane Beryl.  We’ve made it through most of the weather scares for crop pricing, unless we get absolutely cooked the rest of the growing season or a wild early frost. The market is really saying “rain makes grain”.

China needs to purchase beans... end of story. The US export sales are showing 20-year lows and account for over 40% of our demand.

Thankfully grains are showing positive closes on all crops Thursday. I would like to insert a quote we saw on X this week, “The industry is addicted to telling farmers there’s bullish potential – no matter the price, trend or market conditions”.

If you’re looking for a 2024 wheat policy or looking for some marketing assistance, please reach out to a grain originator. We’ve had a small start to the wheat harvest, and we accept wheat at our Marion, Dimock and Tyndall locations.

7/19/2024

 

 

Marketing Needs

By Jeff Moritz, Lead Grain Merchandiser

One of the biggest grain market drivers of the year is today. This morning, we will get a USDA data dump in the form of US Quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Report. Many in the trade believe that both Corn and Soybean acres will increase modestly from the March Intentions Report. The average trade guesses heading into the report are 90.3 million acres for Corn and 86.7 million acres for Soybeans. These figures would be 300k and 200k increases from the USDA March Report, respectively.

Admittedly there were challenges this spring with what seemed to be constant and significant rain at times, we were able to get the crops in the ground. There will be some Preventive Plant in our trade area to be sure but on the whole crop planting progressed on average and in a relatively timely fashion. The market is also under the assumption that some acres may have been switched to soybeans as the Corn planting window ended in late May. However, keep in mind this report will not factor in any acres lost due to the recent heavy rains and flooding events. Depending on the numbers we see today, it will be the market’s job to work through potential lost acres over the next several months. At this point any lost production determination will be initially settled in the cash market in the form of basis from harvest forward. We may or may not see futures react until much later, maybe not until 2025. That of course will depend on how the demand prospects develop going forward as well.

The acreage report gets the pre report spotlight, but the Stocks Report always has the potential to steal the show. The trade sees increases to the Corn and Soybean Stocks on Hand as of June 1. Average Corn estimate is 4.87 billion bushels on hand which would be well over 750 million bushels on hand from last year. The average Soybean guess is 962 million bushels on hand which is about 170 million more from June 1 of 2023.

Looking at Corn Stocks at face value, it seems rather bearish. However, corn demand has been a bright spot for the row crop market. Domestic demand in the form of Feed and Ethanol have seen solid increases year on year. Exports have been adequate as well, with our #1 Buyer Mexico, patronizing the US global corn business in a meaningful way. All this is to say that US corn usage is finishing better than expected to end the marketing year, however the Supply is adequate enough at this point to absorb any late demand or modest production cuts.

From a stocks perspective Soybeans have a challenging picture. The total of 962 million bushels on hand would be the highest in 4 years. Exports continue to disappoint as the US just has not been competitive in the global market. Brazil and overall South America continues to dominate that business and their window of dominance continues to extend. While we have seen some business shift to the US recently it just has not been enough to cut into the increasingly burdensome supply that the US is facing. Domestically crush has been a bright spot until this spring when we saw some production hiccups. However, overall, this sector should have a solid finish to the marketing year.

Please do not hesitate to reach out to your local CFC originator to discuss your marketing needs for any remaining old and new crop bushels. Have a great summer!

6/28/2024

 

 

Summertime Grains

By Becky Johnson, Grain Manager, Salem

Happy first full day of Summer! Crazy to think we are less than two weeks away from the 4th of July.

Hopefully after this week the weather will turn around and it will start warming up and drying out.

Before the mid-week holiday, grains started out down Monday and then opened up on Tuesday giving one a little hope closing 14.75 cents up on nearby soybeans and 4.25 cents up on nearby corn going into the Juneteenth Holiday.  Markets reopened Wednesday night down.  Currently the weather does not seem to be having much impact on crop prices as far as trading in the green.  Will see what happens after the next three days after the rain stops and temperatures start to rise.

As of Wednesday June 19th, all Fremar locations are offering free DP on any corn and/or beans brought in now through October 4th, 2024.

Please call your local Grain Managers/ Originators for help on marketing your grain and any questions.

We appreciate your business! Have a safe summer!

6/21/2024

 

 

 

 

Central Farmers has a mobile app that provides real time business information at your hands. By partnering with BUSHEL, we are able to empower you, our producers, to make informed and quicker business decisions with CFC.

  • Access scale tickets, contracts, bushel balances, cash bids and market information— all from your smartphone.
  • Access scale tickets virtually in real time, allowing you to know how many bushels you have delivered and how much still needs to be delivered. The Scale Ticket interface is easy to understand and tracks grade factors such as Moisture and Test Weight.
  • Access your contracts that you have with any CFC location. You will be able to see the status of any contract to find out whether it is filled or is still open.
  • Access real-time bushel balances of your grain across all CFC locations.
  • Access delayed cash bids for all of our CFC locations. You will be able to access Grains, Livestock and Ethanol Futures from CME or MGEX.

You can find the App on Google Play for Android devices or the App Store for iPhones by searching for Central Farmers. Download it today!

 
Click here for the ADM Advantage website
 
Click here for the ADM Crop Insurance Information
 
 
Ask us how you can help keep U.S. ag exports competitive.

FREMAR LLC strongly recommends farmers verify their seed varieties are approved for significant export markets.
We plan to selectively test loads delivered to our grain handling facilities.
We reserve the right to reject crops with unapproved traits.
If you have seed that is not approved for significant export markets, we encourage you to check with your seed sales representative to see if your order can be exchanged for seed that is approved for global use.
 
 
FREMAR LLC will NOT accept any treated soybeans at any of our facilities in grain deliveries.
It is ILLEGAL to dump treated beans at ANY grain facility!
 
 
Due to a recent South Dakota court ruling, all Voluntary Credit Sale contracts (DP, Deferred Pay, Basis), the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission Warehouse Division has notified FREMAR LLC and Central Farmers Cooperative that all Voluntary Credit Sales Contracts must be signed within 30 days of final delivery.
 
 
If FREMAR LLC or Central Farmers does not receive the signed contract at our elevator within 30 days,
the bushels on these contracts must be cashed out at the closing price on that date
and the check will be mailed to the producer.
  
Please click here for the official South Dakota Public Utilities Commission Warehouse Division Ruling 

 
 
 
The CBOT trading hours are:
Sunday - Thursday night hours are 7:00pm - 7:45am. 
Monday - Friday day hours are 8:30am - 1:15pm.

Central Farmers Cooperative continues to purchase grain for all locations while the CBOT is open and closed.
The extended hours continue to put more volatility into the market.  We encourage our customers to continue to utilize our offer system.  Your offers have the potential to be filled at any time while the market is open.
Please call your local Central Farmers Cooperative location to place your offers as well as any questions you may have.
Thanks as always for your patronage.
 

 



Origination Staff

Matt Morog
Grain Department Manager
605-871-3809
Jeff Moritz
Lead Grain Merchandiser
605-661-1106
Jake Moret
Grain Originator
605-941-8141
 
Hunter Behrens
Lyons Grain Originator
605-543-5400
 
  
Christopher Owen
Dimock Location
605-928-3393
 
Terry Kampshoff
Canova Location Manager
605-661-7724
Mike Sayler
Freeman Location Manager
605-360-7880
  
Rebecca Johnson
Salem Elevator Location Manager
605-425-2280